Political Analysis of the Hypothetical Wisconsin Assembly Districts (Districts 67-99)

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve done political analyses of how Wisconsin’s congressional and state senate districts may look like if Wisconsin had an Iowa-style redistricting process.

I’m now going to continue my analysis of how Wisconsin’s state assembly districts may look like if Wisconsin had an Iowa-style redistricting process.Here’s the hypothetical state assembly districts map produced by the Wisconsin Legislative Reference Bureau (LRB), and here’s the spreadsheets I’ve compiled by redrawing the LRB’s hypothetical assembly districts on Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), downloading the CD and VTD data of the hypothetical assembly districts from DRA, and creating my own spreadsheets using the DRA data and some of my own calculations based on the DRA data.

Some important notes regarding the data provided in the analysis: “Total Population” refers to the total population of the district, “Deviation from Mean District Population” refers to how many more or less people the district has compared to the population of the average district (57,444), “Voting Age Population” refers to the total population of people 18 years of age or older in the district, “2008-2010 Average” refers to the Democratic and Republican two-party percentages of a weighted average of the 2008 Presidential, 2010 Gubernatorial, and 2010 U.S. Senate elections in Wisconsin, weighted at 50% for the 2008 Presidential race, 25% for the 2010 Gubernatorial race, and 25% for the 2010 U.S. Senate race, in each district, “Partisan Lean Relative to State” refers to how much more Democratic or Republican the district is compared to the state as a whole according to the 2008-2010 Average, and “Notes” refers to my descriptions and analysis of the district, as well as how the races in each district would play out if the hypothetical districts were in use for the 2014 elections.

Regarding percentages listed in the analysis: For the race statistics in Total Population and Voting Age Population, I’ve rounded the percentages of those to the nearest whole percent (unless it would be rounded to 50% under that rule, in that case, I round to either one or two decimal places), and, if a particular race has less than 0.5% of the total population or voting age population in a particular district, I don’t list that race for that district. The total of the race percentages of the total population and voting age population for each district may be more or less than 100% because of the rounding rules I use. Percentages for Deviation, 2008-2010 Average, and Partisan Lean Relative to State are all rounded to two decimal places.

This is part three of a three-part series of analyses of Wisconsin’s hypothetical assembly districts, covering hypothetical assembly districts 34-66. You can view part one of the series here, and you can view part two of the series here.


 

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 67-69

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 67-69

67th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,844 (95% White, 3% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +400 (+0.7%)

Voting Age Population: 42,044 (96% White, 3% Hispanic)

2008-2010 Average: 46.62% Democratic, 53.38% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 6.37% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican district, effectively the successor of the current 69th District, includes all of Taylor County, the vast majority of Clark County, the eastern third of Rusk County, the northwestern corner of Marathon County, and two sections of southern Price County. No incumbent lives here, although Republican incumbent Bob Kulp would probably run here and win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

68th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,620 (94% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +176 (+0.31%)

Voting Age Population: 44,261 (95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 50.92% Democratic, 49.08% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.07% Republican

Notes: This district, slightly more Republican than the state as a whole, includes eastern portions of Chippewa County and the western two-thirds of Rusk County. Republican incumbent Kathy Bernier would run here, and she’d face stiff competition from Democrats.

69th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,454 (95% White, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +10 (+0.02%)

Voting Age Population: 45,173 (96% White, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 51.27% Democratic, 48.73% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.71% Republican

Notes: This district, only slightly more Republican than the state as a whole and effectively the successor of the current 67th District, includes the vast majority of Dunn County and western portions of Chippewa County. Republican incumbent Tom Larson lives here, and he’d face a very competitive general election.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 70-72

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 70-72

70th Assembly District

Total Population: 56,425 (92% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -1,019 (-1.77%)

Voting Age Population: 45,015 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 60.93% Democratic, 39.07% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 7.95% Democratic

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district, entirely within Portage County and effectively the successor of the current 71st District, includes the City of Stevens Point and areas to the south and east of there. Barring a scandal or something along those lines, Democratic incumbent Katrina Shankland would win re-election here.

71st Assembly District

Total Population: 58,205 (94% White, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +761 (+1.32%)

Voting Age Population: 44,576 (95% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American)

2008-2010 Average: 52.26% Democratic, 47.74% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.73% Republican

Notes: This swing district, effectively the successor of the current 70th District, includes the vast majority of Wood County and northwestern Portage County. Democratic incumbent Amy Sue Vruwink would run here, and, given that she’s an institution in this part of the state and has a moderate voting record, she’d win re-election here barring a scandal or something along those lines. Republicans would strongly contest this district in an open-seat race.

72nd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,344 (92% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -100 (-0.17%)

Voting Age Population: 46,103 (93% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 51.68% Democratic, 48.32% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.31% Republican

Notes: This district includes all of Juneau and Adams Counties, the southeastern corner of Wood County, the southwestern corner of Portage County, and a small section of northern Sauk County. Republican incumbent Scott Krug would run here. Regardless of who Republicans nominate, Democrats would strongly contest this district.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 73-75

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 73-75

73rd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,619 (91% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 4% Native American, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +175 (+0.3%)

Voting Age Population: 45,614 (92% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 62.91% Democratic, 37.09% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 9.92% Democratic

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district in the northwestern corner of the state consists of all of Douglas County and most of Bayfield County. Democratic incumbent Nick Milroy lives here and would win re-election easily.

74th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,246 (88% White, 1% Hispanic, 8% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -198 (-0.35%)

Voting Age Population: 45,593 (90% White, 1% Hispanic, 7% Native American, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 54.8% Democratic, 45.2% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.81% Democratic

Notes: This district, only slightly more Democratic-leaning than the state as a whole, consists of all of Ashland, Sawyer, and Iron Counties, the vast majority of Price County, southeastern Bayfield County, and eastern Washburn County. Whoever Democrats nominate would be favored here, although Republicans would strongly contest this district.

75th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,884 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +440 (+0.77%)

Voting Age Population: 45,168 (97% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 50.11% Democratic, 49.89% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.88% Republican

Notes: This district, only slightly more Republican-leaning as a whole, includes all of Barron County and western Washburn County. This district is actually discontiguous: the Village of Birchwood in southeastern Washburn County is in the 75th District, but the town of Birchwood in Washburn County and the Town of Edgewater in Sawyer County that neighbor the Village of Birchwood are in the 74th District. Democratic incumbent Stephen Smith, an accidental representative because he defeated a Republican incumbent who made offensive remarks about statutory rape in 2012, would run here. Although Republicans would seriously contest this district, this district is slightly more Democratic than the current 75th District.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 76-78 (76 Brown, 77 Blue, 78 Green)

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 76-78 (76 Brown, 77 Blue, 78 Green)

76th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,300 (71% White, 7% Black, 10% Hispanic, 8% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population:  -144 (-0.25%)

Voting Age Population: 50,733 (75% White, 6% Black, 8% Hispanic, 8% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 81.94% Democratic, 18.06% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 28.95% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district, entirely within Dane County, includes the western-most part of the Isthmus and areas to the south of there in the City of Madison and most of the Town of Madison. Democratic incumbent Chris Taylor would likely run here, and she’d win re-election easily, likely without any opposition. This district, although White majority by both total and voting age population, has a 40% White plurality by non-voting age population.

77th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,197 (78% White, 9% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -247 (-0.43%)

Voting Age Population: 47,825 (83% White, 7% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 84.29% Democratic, 15.71% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 31.3% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district, entirely within Dane County, includes all of the Village of Maple Bluff, most of the Isthmus and much of the East Side of the City of Madison and most of the Town of Burke. Democratic incumbent Melissa Sargent, the lead author of proposed legislation to create an Iowa-style redistricting process in Wisconsin, would likely run here and win re-election easily, likely with no opposition.

78th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,185 (75% White, 7% Black, 6% Hispanic, 9% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +741 (+1.29%)

Voting Age Population: 46,302 (79% White, 5% White, 5% Hispanic, 9% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 80.15% Democratic, 19.85% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 27.16% Democratic

Notes: This district, which is overwhelmingly-Democratic, entirely within Dane County, and includes all of the Village of Shorewood Hills, much of the West Side of the City of Madison, and a tiny part of the Town of Madison. Democratic incumbent Terese Berceau would likely run here, and she’d win re-election easily, likely with no opposition whatsoever. This district, by both total and voting age population, has the largest Asian/Pacific Islander population by percentage, mostly consisting of University of Wisconsin-Madison students.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 79-81

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 79-81

79th Assembly District

Total Population: 55,435 (81% White, 4% Black, 5% Hispanic, 8% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -2,009 (-3.5%)

Voting Age Population: 43,041 (84% White, 3% Black, 4% Hispanic, 8% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 69.3% Democratic, 30.7% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 16.31% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district, located entirely within Dane County, includes Middleton and the far western portions of the City of Madison. Democratic incumbent Dianne Hesselbein lives here, and she’d win re-election easily.

80th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,844 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +400 (+0.7%)

Voting Age Population: 42,676 (96% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 61.96% Democratic, 38.04% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.97% Democratic

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district includes western Dane County, part of Prairie du Sac in Sauk County, and the portion of the Village of Belleville that is in Green County. Democratic incumbent Sondy Pope would run here and win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

81st Assembly District

Total Population: 57,935 (93% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +491 (+0.85%)

Voting Age Population: 44,170 (95% White, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 56.71% Democratic, 43.29% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.72% Democratic

Notes: This Democratic-leaning district is entirely within Sauk County and contains the vast majority of it. Republican incumbent Ed Brooks lives here and would run here, but he’d be the underdog to whoever Democrats nominate.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 82-84

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 82-84

82nd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,836 (89% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +392 (+0.68%)

Voting Age Population: 44,258 (91% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 32.69% Democratic, 67.31% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 20.3% Republican

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Republican district is effectively a new district, located entirely within Waukesha County and containing the Brookfield area. Two Republican incumbents live here: Rob Hutton and Dale Kooyenga, although one of them would probably run in the 14th District. Regardless, the Republican primary is tantamount to election here.

83rd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,430 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -14 (-0.02%)

Voting Age Population: 42,588 (96% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

2008-2010 Average: 29.15% Democratic, 70.85% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 23.84% Republican

Notes: This district, effectively the successor of the current 22nd District (although shifted southward and considerably westward compared to the current 22nd District), is an overwhelmingly-Republican district entirely within Waukesha County and containing the northern part of it. The Republican primary would be tantamount to election here, as it’s the most Republican district in the entire state.

84th Assembly District

Total Population: 56,727 (95% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -717 (-1.25%)

Voting Age Population: 42,022 (96% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

2008-2010 Average: 31.1% Democratic, 68.9% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 21.88% Republican

Notes: This district, overwhelmingly-Republican and entirely within Waukesha County, is effectively the successor of the current 99th District and includes much of the western part of the county from Oconomowoc southward. Two Republican incumbents live here: Joel Kleefisch and Chris Kapenga, although one of them would probably run in the 83rd District. Whoever wins the GOP primary would win the general election easily.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 85-87

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 85-87

85th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,786 (86% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 9% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -431 (-0.75%)

Voting Age Population: 43,903 (90% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 7% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 52.91% Democratic, 47.09% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.08% Republican

Notes: This district, barely more Republican than the state as a whole, is entirely within Marathon County and includes most of the Wausau urban area and areas along the east bank of the Wisconsin River north of Wausau. Democratic incumbent Mandy Wright lives here, and Republicans would seriously contest this district, as it’s in an area of the state that is trending towards Republicans.

86th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,786 (93% White, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +342 (+0.59%)

Voting Age Population: 43,833 (95% White, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 47.44% Democratic, 52.56% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.54% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican district, consisting of eastern Marathon County and much of western and central Shawano County, has no incumbent and is effectively a new district. Whoever wins the GOP primary would be strongly favored in the general election here.

87th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,156 (95% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +712 (+1.24%)

Voting Age Population: 44,100 (97% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

2008-2010 Average: 47.35% Democratic, 52.65% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.64% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican district, effectively the successor district to the current 86th District, includes the northwestern part of Wood County, the portion of the Village of Unity that is in Clark County, and western Marathon County. While two Republican incumbents, Bob Kulp and John Spiros, both live here, Spiros would probably run here while Kulp would probably run in the 67th District. Regardless, whoever wins the GOP nomination would be strongly favored for the general election.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 88-90

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 88-90

88th Assembly District

Total Population: 55,069 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -2,375 (-4.13%)

Voting Age Population: 42,576 (96% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 46.51% Democratic, 53.49% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.03% Republican

Notes: This district, a Republican stronghold consisting of western and central portions of Winnebago County (including central and southern portions of the City of Oshkosh) and the Ripon area in Fond du Lac County, is effectively the successor to the current 56th District (although shifted considerably southward). This district lacks an incumbent, and the winner of the Republican primary would win the general election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

89th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,487 (89% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +1,043 (+1.82%)

Voting Age Population: 43,912 (91% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 44.96% Democratic, 55.04% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.03% Republican

Notes: This district, effectively a new district, is entirely within Outgamie County and includes the southwestern, south central, central, and northeastern portions of the county. Republican incumbent Dave Murphy would run here, and he’d win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

90th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,657 (94% White, 2% Hispanic, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +213 (+0.37%)

Voting Age Population: 43,975 (95% White, 1% Hispanic, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 46.58% Democratic, 53.42% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 6.41% Republican

Notes: This district, effectively a new district, is a heavily-Republican district that consists of northwestern and north central Outgamie County, eastern Shawano County, and southern and central Oconto County. Republican incumbent Gary Tauchen would run here and win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 91-93

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 91-93

91st Assembly District

Total Population: 57,603 (91% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +159 (+0.28%)

Voting Age Population: 46,737 (93% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 61.37% Democratic, 38.63% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.38% Democratic

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district, entirely within the Eau Claire County portion of the City of Eau Claire, contains the vast majority of the Eau Claire County portion of the city. Democratic incumbent Dana Wachs would run here and win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

92nd Assembly District

Total Population: 58,330 (94% White, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +886 (+1.54%)

Voting Age Population: 44,126 (96% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 51.5% Democratic, 48.5% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.49% Republican

Notes: This swing district, slightly more Republican than the state as a whole and effectively the successor to the current 93rd District, includes a couple of precincts of the City of Eau Claire and rural/suburban portions of Eau Claire County, northwestern and north central portions of Jackson County, northeastern Trempealeau County, and southeastern Dunn County. Republican incumbent Warren Petryk, who barely lives in the district, would run here, and he’d face stiff competition from Democrats.

93rd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,669 (95% White, 4% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +225 (+0.39%)

Voting Age Population: 44,166 (96% White, 3% Hispanic)

2008-2010 Average: 53.36% Democratic, 46.64% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.38% Democratic

Notes: This district, slightly more Democratic than Wisconsin as a whole and effectively the successor to the current 92nd District, includes all of Pepin and Buffalo Counties, the vast majority of Trempealeau County, and central, east central, and southeastern Pierce County. Democratic incumbent Chris Danou lives here, and, given that he tends to outperform upballot Democrats considerably, he’d win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines, although Republicans would strongly contest this district when Danou either retires or runs for higher office.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 94-96

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 94-96

94th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,597 (93% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +153 (+0.27%)

Voting Age Population: 42,543 (95% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 50.39% Democratic, 49.61% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.6% Republican

Notes: This district, slightly more Republican than the state as a whole, is entirely within La Crosse County, includes the northern La Crosse suburbs and rural portions of the county. Democratic incumbent Steve Doyle lives here, and, given that Doyle tends to outperform upballot Democrats, Republicans would probably wait until this seat becomes open to seriously contest this district unless there’s a scandal or something along those lines.

95th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,041 (90% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -403 (-0.7%)

Voting Age Population: 47,633 (92% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 64.01% Democratic, 35.99% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 11.02% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district, entirely within La Crosse County, includes the City of La Crosse and areas immediately to the south, east, and northwest of the city. Democratic incumbent Jill Billings lives here, and she’d win re-election easily.

96th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,967 (91% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +523 (+0.91%)

Voting Age Population: 43,386 (92% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 50.85% Democratic, 49.15% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.14% Republican

Notes: This district, slightly more Republican-leaning than the state as a whole and effectively a new district, includes all of Monroe County, eastern Jackson County, and extreme southern Clark County. This district has no incumbent, and both parties would contest this district seriously.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 97-99

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 97-99

97th Assembly District

Total Population: 56,125 (86% White, 2% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -1,319 (-2.3%)

Voting Age Population: 43,790 (88% White, 1% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 34.93% Democratic, 65.07% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 18.06% Republican

Notes: This district, entirely within Waukesha County, includes the North Side of the City of Waukesha and areas immediately to the north and west of there. Effectively the successor to the current 98th District, Republican incumbent Adam Neylon would run here and win re-election easily, since it’s an overwhelmingly-Republican district.

98th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,942 (85% White, 2% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +1,498 (+2.61%)

Voting Age Population: 44,397 (88% White, 1% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 37.44% Democratic, 62.56% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 15.55% Republican

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Republican district, located entirely within Waukesha County and effectively the successor to the current 97th District, includes the South Side of the City of Waukesha and areas to the south of there. Republican incumbent David Craig would run here and win re-election easily.

99th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,055 (93% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +611 (+1.06%)

Voting Age Population: 44,904 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 34.21% Democratic, 65.79% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 18.78% Republican

Notes: This district, entirely within Waukesha County and including much of the southeastern portion of the county, is overwhelmingly-Republican and effectively the successor to the current 84th District. Republican incumbent Mike Kuglitsch lives here, and he’d win re-election easily here.


Of Hypothetical Wisconsin Assembly Districts 67-99, 12 of them are more Democratic than the state as a whole and 21 of them are more Republican than the state as a whole. Given that hypothetical assembly districts 1-66 are 32 Democratic-leaning districts and 34 Republican-leaning districts, that means that 44 of the hypothetical assembly districts are more Democratic than the state as a whole and 55 of the hypothetical assembly districts are more Republican than the state as a whole.

The state assembly is where Democrats would benefit the most from the hypothetical maps over the current maps, in fact, if the hypothetical assembly maps were in use for the 2014 elections, Democrats would have a far better chance of retaking control of the state assembly and would gain numerous pickup opportunities across the state (especially in the Milwaukee County suburbs and the Appleton metro area, although there are numerous pickup opportunities for Democrats in other parts of the state) that are not available under the current maps. If Democrats win all 44 districts that are more Democratic-leaning than the state as a whole, Democrats would need to win six districts that are more Republican-leaning than the state as a whole in order to win a one-seat majority in the Assembly under the hypothetical maps.

This is the end of my Wisconsin hypothetical maps analysis series. I hope you’ve enjoyed this series!

Racist homophobe Jacob Dorsey drops out of Wisconsin Assembly race

Jacob Dorsey, the Republican candidate in the 44th Assembly District of Wisconsin, which is an urban Janesville district that includes most of the city, has ended his campaign after his racist and homophobic online remarks were uncovered and received national media attention.

Among other things, Dorsey said via Twitter that (gay people) need to leave his favorite state of Utah alone in response to a federal judge striking down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage and commented on a YouTube video that “(black people) trash cars” and that he’s “not selling my town car to one”. Dorsey didn’t actually use the terms “gay people” and “black people, instead, he used a four-letter plural epithet that begins with the letter “f” to describe gay people and used a seven-letter plural epithet that begins with the letter “n” to describe black people.

Dorsey’s comments were downright vile and have no place whatsoever in this country’s political discourse. Dorsey can apologize for making racist and homophobic remarks all he wants, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has a deep-seeded hatred for black and LGBT people, which are a large part of this country’s population.

I’d like to congratulate Democratic Wisconsin State Representative Deb Kolste on winning a second term in office.

Political Analysis of the Wisconsin Hypothetical Assembly Districts (Districts 34-66)

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve done political analyses of how Wisconsin’s congressional and state senate districts may look like if Wisconsin had an Iowa-style redistricting process.

I’m now going to continue my analysis of how Wisconsin’s state assembly districts may look like if Wisconsin had an Iowa-style redistricting process. Here’s the hypothetical state assembly districts map produced by the Wisconsin Legislative Reference Bureau (LRB), and here’s the spreadsheets I’ve compiled by redrawing the LRB’s hypothetical assembly districts on Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), downloading the CD and VTD data of the hypothetical assembly districts from DRA, and creating my own spreadsheets using the DRA data and some of my own calculations based on the DRA data.

Some important notes regarding the data provided in the analysis: “Total Population” refers to the total population of the district, “Deviation from Mean District Population” refers to how many more or less people the district has compared to the population of the average district (57,444), “Voting Age Population” refers to the total population of people 18 years of age or older in the district, “2008-2010 Average” refers to the Democratic and Republican two-party percentages of a weighted average of the 2008 Presidential, 2010 Gubernatorial, and 2010 U.S. Senate elections in Wisconsin, weighted at 50% for the 2008 Presidential race, 25% for the 2010 Gubernatorial race, and 25% for the 2010 U.S. Senate race, in each district, “Partisan Lean Relative to State” refers to how much more Democratic or Republican the district is compared to the state as a whole according to the 2008-2010 Average, and “Notes” refers to my descriptions and analysis of the district, as well as how the races in each district would play out if the hypothetical districts were in use for the 2014 elections.

Regarding percentages listed in the analysis: For the race statistics in Total Population and Voting Age Population, I’ve rounded the percentages of those to the nearest whole percent (unless it would be rounded to 50% under that rule, in that case, I round to either one or two decimal places), and, if a particular race has less than 0.5% of the total population or voting age population in a particular district, I don’t list that race for that district. The total of the race percentages of the total population and voting age population for each district may be more or less than 100% because of the rounding rules I use. Percentages for Deviation, 2008-2010 Average, and Partisan Lean Relative to State are all rounded to two decimal places.

This is part two of a three-part series of analyses of Wisconsin’s hypothetical assembly districts, covering hypothetical assembly districts 34-66. You can view part one of the series here.


 

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 34-36

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 34-36

Assembly District 34

Total Population: 57,428 (92% White, 1% Hispanic, 5% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -16 (0.03%)

Voting Age Population: 46,980 (94% White, 1% Hispanic, 4% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 47.84% Democratic, 52.16% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.14% Republican

Notes: This Republican-leaning district is located in the north-central part of the state and includes all of Vilas and Oneida Counties. Republican incumbent Rob Swearingen lives here, and it would be very difficult, but not impossible, for Democrats to defeat him.

Assembly District 35

Total Population: 56,973 (88% White, 2% Hispanic, 9% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -471 (-0.82%)

Voting Age Population: 44,270 (90% White, 1% Hispanic, 7% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 51.29% Democratic, 48.71% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.7% Republican

Notes: This district, which is only slightly more Republican-leaning than the state as a whole, has the largest Native American population of any assembly district. All of Lincoln, Langlade, and Menominee Counties, as well as a couple of sections of northern Shawano County and the northwestern corner of Oconto County, are included in this district. Republican incumbent Mary Czaja lives here, and Democrats would strongly contest this district.

Assembly District 36

Total Population: 57,839 (94% White, 1% Hispanic, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +395 (+0.69%)

Voting Age Population: 46,169 (95% White, 1% Hispanic, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 48.99% Democratic, 51.01% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 4% Republican

Notes: This district, located in the northeastern corner of the state, includes all of Forest, Florence, and Marinette Counties, as well as parts of northern Oconto County. This district is Republican-leaning. Two Republican incumbents live here, both of which are Republicans: Jeffrey Mursau and John Nygren. This district consists mostly of Mursau’s district, and Nygren’s current district is dismantled to the point that Nygren is effectively left without a district to run in without having to run against another Republican incumbent, so both Mursau and Nygren would run here. The winner of the GOP primary would be favored here, although this district isn’t completely out of reach for Democrats.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 37-39

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 37-39

Assembly District 37

Total Population: 57,341 (81% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -103 (-0.18%)

Voting Age Population: 44,582 (85% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 56.8% Democratic, 43.2% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.81% Democratic

Notes: This district includes eastern portions of Rock County (including eastern portions of the City of Beloit) and west central and northwestern portions of Walworth County. Effectively the successor to the current 31st District, this district becomes significantly more Democratic compared to the current 31st District, largely due to it losing places like Elkhorn and Williams Bay and gaining the Walworth County portion of Whitewater. Republican incumbent Amy Loudenbeck would run here, and whoever Democrats nominate would have at least a 50-50 shot of defeating her. One possible Democratic candidate here would be Democratic incumbent Andy Jorgensen, who lives here, although he could opt to run in the 33rd District instead, as he lived in that area prior to the post-2010 Census redistricting.

Assembly District 38

Total Population: 53,233 (86% White, 1% Black, 12% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -4,211 (-7.33%)

Voting Age Population: 40,044 (90% White, 9% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 41.35% Democratic, 58.65% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 11.64% Republican

Notes: This district, effectively the successor of the current 32nd District, is entirely within Walworth County and contains the southwestern and central portions of the county. Republican incumbent Tyler August would either run here or in the 33rd District. Either way, the Republican nominee would win re-election here, as it’s an overwhelmingly-Republican district.

Assembly District 39

Total Population: 62,600 (92% White, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +5,156 (+8.98%)

Voting Age Population: 46,887 (94% White, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 35.02% Democratic, 64.98% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 17.97% Republican

Notes: This district is effectively a new district containing the east central and northeastern parts of Walworth County, the western-most parts of Racine County, and parts of south central Waukesha County. Two Republican incumbents may live here: Robin Vos, the State Assembly Speaker, and Tyler August. One of them would run here, and would win re-election easily, since it’s overwhelmingly-Republican.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 40-42

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 40-42

Assembly District 40

Total Population: 57,604 (95% White, 3% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -380 (-0.66%)

Voting Age Population: 44,004 (96% White, 2% Hispanic)

2008-2010 Average: 46.53% Democratic, 53.47% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 6.46% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican, Waupaca County-based district includes all of Waupaca County, two sections of western Outgamie County, and the portion of the City of Marion that is in Oconto County. Republican incumbent Kevin David Petersen would run here and win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

Assembly District 41

Total Population: 57,929 (93% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +485 (+0.84%)

Voting Age Population: 45,978 (95% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic)

2008-2010 Average: 43.99% Democratic, 56.01% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 9% Republican

Notes: This is a heavily-Republican district consisting of all of Waushara and Marquette Counties, as well as the vast majority of Green Lake County. Republican incumbent Joan Ballweg lives here, and she’d win re-election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

Assembly District 42

Total Population: 57,855 (94% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +411 (+0.71%)

Voting Age Population: 44,232 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 53.56% Democratic, 46.44% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.57% Democratic

Notes: This district, only slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole, contains all of Columbia County and the Town of Manchester in Green Lake County. Republican incumbent Keith Ripp would run here, and Democrats would strongly contest this district. However, this area of Wisconsin tends to be more favorable to Republicans in downballot races like state assembly, and, if there’s any Republican who can win an election here, it would be Ripp.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 43-45

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 43-45

Assembly District 43

Total Population: 53,759 (83% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -3,685 (-6.42%)

Voting Age Population: 39,896 (87% White, 5% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 58.96% Democratic, 41.04% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.97% Democratic

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district consists of the western part of Rock County, including western portions of the City of Beloit. Whoever Democrats nominate would win here barring a scandal or something along those lines.

Assembly District 44

Total Population: 61,919 (89% White, 3% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +4,475 (+7.79%)

Voting Age Population: 46,715 (92% White, 2% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 62.99% Democratic, 37.01% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 10% Democratic

Notes: This district consists of the City of Janesville in Rock County, and it is overwhelmingly-Democratic. Democratic incumbent Deb Kolste would run here, and she’d have no trouble winning re-election barring another Mike Sheridan-type scenario (i.e., a scandal in a favorable political environment for Republicans).

Assembly District 45

Total Population: 57,690 (82% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population:+246 (+0.43%)

Voting Age Population: 42,987 (85% White, 4% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 64.86% Democratic, 35.14% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 11.87% Democratic

Notes: This is effectively a new, overwhelmingly-Democratic, district consisting of parts of south central Dane County and north central and eastern portions of Green County. One possible Democratic candidate here would be Mahlon Mitchell, who was the Democratic nominee in the 2012 recall election for lieutenant governor. Regardless, whoever wins the Democratic primary would win the general election here.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 46-48

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 46-48

Assembly District 46

Total Population: 56,653 (81% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -791 (-1.38%)

Voting Age Population: 44,227 (86% White, 5% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 73.06% Democratic, 26.94% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 20.07% Democratic

Notes: This district, overwhelmingly-Democratic, entirely within Dane County, and effectively the successor of the current 47th District, includes parts of the East Side of the City of Madison, Monona, and nearby areas. One, if not two, Democratic incumbents live here: Robb Kahl lives here, and Melissa Sargent, the lead author of the redistricting reform legislation in Wisconsin, either lives here or in the 77th District, although she’d probably run in the 77th District. If Kahl were to run here, he may have trouble winning a competitive primary, since Kahl is not liked by many on the left for supporting Scott Walker’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign. Either way, the Democratic primary is tantamount to election here.

Assembly District 47

Total Population: 57,729 (88% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +285 (+0.5%)

Voting Age Population: 41,661 (91% White, 3% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 59.21% Democratic, 40.79% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 6.22% Democratic

Notes: This district, entirely within Dane County, based in Sun Prairie, and effectively the successor of the current 46th District, includes much of the north central part of Dane County. Democratic incumbent Gary Hebl would win re-election here, although Republicans could make a play for this district when Hebl retires.

Assembly District 48

Total Population: 58,081 (93% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +637 (+1.11%)

Voting Age Population: 43,466 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 62.95% Democratic, 37.05% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 9.96% Democratic

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district is effectively a new district containing the rural/exoburban areas of eastern Dane County, as well as the portion of the City of Edgerton that is in Rock County. Whoever wins the Democratic primary here would win the general election barring a scandal or something along those lines.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 49-51

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 49-51

Assembly District 49

Total Population: 57,542 (96% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

Deviation from Mean Population: +8 (+0.01%)

Voting Age Population: 45,224 (96% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

2008-2010 Average: 56.2% Democratic, 43.8% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.22% Democratic

Notes: This district consists of nearly all of Grant County and includes the Prairie du Chien area in Crawford County. Republican incumbent Travis Tranel would run here, and, although this district is Democratic-leaning for races at or near the top of the ticket, this area tends to vote for Republicans for downballot races like state assembly. Democrats will seriously contest this district, as it’s a major pickup opportunity.

Assembly District 50

Total Population: 57,594 (96% White, 3% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +150 (+0.26%)

Voting Age Population: 43,432 (97% White, 2% Hispanic)

2008-2010 Average: 59.17% Democratic, 40.83% Democratic

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 6.18% Democratic

Notes: This district, effectively the successor of the current 51st District, consists of all of Iowa and Lafayette Counties, the portion of the Village of Livingston that is in Grant County, and western portions of Green County. Although this is a heavily-Democratic district for races at or near the top of the ticket, for downballot races like state assembly, this district is a swing district. Both major parties would contest this race heavily.

Assembly District 51

Total Population: 57,537 (97% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +93 (+0.16%)

Voting Age Population: 43,256 (98% White, 1% Hispanic)

2008-2010 Average: 56.27% Democratic, 43.73% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.28% Democratic

Notes: This district, effectively the successor of the current 96th District, includes all of Vernon and Richland Counties, as well as most of Crawford County. This is another district that is Democratic-leaning for races at or near the top of the ticket, but tends to favor Republicans like incumbent Lee Nerison in downballot races like state assembly.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 52-54

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 52-54

Assembly District 52

Total Population: 58,252 (93% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +808 (+1.41%)

Voting Age Population: 45,366 (94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

2008-2010 Average: 38.61% Democratic, 61.39% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 14.38% Republican

Notes: This district includes eastern sections of the City of Fond du Lac in Fond du Lac County, much of eastern Fond du Lac County, and northwestern and west central Sheboygan County. An overwhelmingly-Republican district that is effectively a new district (although Republican incumbent Jeremy Theisfeldt either lives here or in the 53rd District, and he’d probably run here, additionally, Republican incumbent Daniel LeMathieu lives here and could run either here, the 58th District, or the 59th District), whoever wins the GOP nomination would win the general election here.

Assembly District 53

Total Population: 58,352 (91% White, 1% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +908 (+1.58%)

Voting Age Population: 44,797 (93% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 43.07% Democratic, 56.93% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 9.92% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican district includes western and central portions of the City of Fond du Lac, much of western Fond du Lac County, and southeastern Winnebago County, including the southernmost parts of the City of Oskhosh. Republican incumbent Michael Schraa would probably run here despite not living in this district, since much of his current territory is in this district, and he’d win re-election here barring a scandal or something along those lines.

Assembly District 54

Total Population: 54,703 (89% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -2,741 (-4.77%)

Voting Age Population: 44,827 (91% White, 4% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 54.84% Democratic, 45.16% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.85% Democratic

Notes: This slightly Democratic-leaning district, entirely within Winnebago County, includes northern portions of the City of Oshkosh and north central parts of Winnebago County. Democratic incumbent Gordon Hintz lives here, and this is a pickup opportunity for Republicans due to the district not being strongly Democratic. However, Hintz would be favored to win re-election here.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 55-57

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 55-57

Assembly District 55

Total Population: 59,593 (89% White, 1% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +2,149 (+3.74%)

Voting Age Population: 45,394 (92% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 53.85% Democratic, 46.15% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.86% Democratic

Notes: This district, entirely within Winnebago County, includes the northeastern corner of the county, including the City of Neenah and the Winnebago County portion of the City of Menasha. This district is only slightly more Democratic-leaning than the state as a whole, and it’s in an ancestrally-Republican region of the state. Both major parties would seriously contest this district.

Assembly District 56

Total Population: 57,480 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +36 (+0.06%)

Voting Age Population: 42,082 (95% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 53.38% Democratic, 46.62% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.39% Democratic

Notes: This district, effectively the successor to the current 5th District, includes the southeastern part of Outgamie County (including the eastern Appleton suburbs and a small section of the City of Appleton itself) and the portion of the Village of Wrightstown that is in Brown County. Republican incumbent Jim Steineke lives here, and Democrats would mount a strong challenge to him, as the district is slightly more Democratic-leaning than the state as a whole, and much of this area was represented by a Democratic assemblyman for eight years from 2005 to 2011.

Assembly District 57

Total Population: 55,889 (86% White, 2% Black, 5% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -1,555 (-2.71%)

Voting Age Population: 42,452 (89% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 55.94% Democratic, 44.06% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.95% Democratic

Notes: This Democratic-leaning district, entirely within the City of Appleton in Outgamie County, consists of the vast majority of the Outgamie County portion of the City of Appleton. Whoever wins the Democratic primary here is favored to win the general election, although this district isn’t completely out of reach for Republicans.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 58-60

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 58-60

Assembly District 58

Total Population: 56,235 (95% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -1,209 (-2.11%)

Voting Age Population: 42,545 (96% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 33.06% Democratic, 66.94% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 19.92% Republican

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Republican district includes the City of West Bend in Washington County, northwestern Ozaukee County, and southwestern Sheboygan County. This is one of three districts (the others being the 52nd District and the 59th District) where Republican incumbent Dan LeMathieu could run. The Republican primary here is tantamount to election.

Assembly District 59

Total Population: 55,986 (95% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -1,458 (-2.54%)

Voting Age Population: 42,415 (97% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

2008-2010 Average: 29.26% Democratic, 70.74% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 23.73% Republican

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Republican district includes western Washington County and a small part of southeastern Fond du Lac County. This is one of three districts (the others being the 52nd District and the 59th District) where Republican incumbent Dan LeMathieu could run. Whoever wins the GOP primary would win the general election.

Assembly District 60

Total Population: 58,370 (93% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +926 (+1.61%)

Voting Age Population: 44,371 (94% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 31.85% Democratic, 68.15% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 21.14% Republican

Notes: This district, effectively the successor to the current 24th District and including southeastern Washington County, north central and eastern portions of Menominee Falls in Waukesha County, and the unpopulated Washington and Waukesha County portions of the City of Milwaukee, is overwhelmingly-Republican. Republican incumbent Dan Knodl would run here, and he’d easily win re-election.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 61-63

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 61-63

Assembly District 61

Total Population: 57,967 (69% White, 12% Black, 15% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +523 (+0.91%)

Voting Age Population: 42,821 (75% White, 11% Black, 12% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 53.01% Democratic, 46.99% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.02% Democratic

Notes: This swing district, effectively the successor to the current 62nd District and is the closest assembly district to the 2008-2010 statewide average, is entirely within Racine County and consists of the northern part of the City of Racine and the northeastern part of Racine County. Republican Tom Weatherston would run here, and he’d face stiff competition from Democrats. This district has a sizable minority population consisting primarily of Blacks and Hispanics, so minority turnout would be absolutely critical for whoever Democrats nominate.

Assembly District 62

Total Population: 57,275 (58% White, 20% Black, 18% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -169 (-0.29%)

Voting Age Population: 42,482 (65% White, 19% Black, 14% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 63.44% Democratic, 36.56% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 10.45% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district, located entirely within Racine County, includes southern portions of the City of Racine and a few precincts of the Village of Mount Pleasant. This district, although White majority by total population and voting-age population, has a 40% White plurality by non-voting age population. Effectively the successor of the current 66th District, Democratic incumbent Cory Mason would likely run here and win re-election easily.

Assembly District 63

Total Population: 56,210 (89% White, 4% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -1,234 (-2.15%)

Voting Age Population: 43,857 (90% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 39.85% Democratic, 60.15% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 13.14% Republican

Notes: This district, which includes central, southeastern, and southwestern portions of Racine County and a small part of western Kenosha County, is one of two districts where Republican incumbent Robin Vos, the State Assembly Speaker, could run. Whoever wins the Republican primary would win the general election here.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 64-66

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 64-66

Assembly District 64

Total Population: 57,936 (78% White, 6% Black, 12% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +492 (+0.86%)

Voting Age Population: 42,624 (83% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 56.82% Democratic, 43.18% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.83% Democratic

Notes: This district, effectively the successor to the current 65th District, is entirely within Kenosha County and includes southern portions of the City of Kenosha and the vast majority of the village of Pleasant Prairie. Democratic incumbent Tod Ohnstad would probably run here, and Ohnstad would be strongly favored to win re-election.

Assembly District 65

Total Population: 58,449 (67% White, 11% Black, 18% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: +1,005 (+1.75%)

Voting Age Population: 42,880 (72% White, 9% Black, 14% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 63.74% Democratic, 36.26% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 10.75% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district is entirely within the City of Kenosha in Kenosha County and includes the northern and western parts of the city. Effectively the successor district to the current 64th District, Democratic incumbent Peter Barca, the State Assembly Minority Leader, would run here and win re-election easily.

Assembly District 66

Total Population: 56,070 (90% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean Population: -1,374 (-2.39%)

Voting Age Population: 42,203 (92% White, 2% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 44.98% Democratic, 55.02% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.01% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican district includes central, northeastern, and southwestern portions of Kenosha County, and also includes Bong State Recreational Area (please don’t steal any road signs pointing motorists to Bong State Recreational Area, as it’s illegal in Wisconsin to steal road signs). Unfortunately, this district is not going to be represented by a recreational marijuana legalization-supporter, as Republican incumbent Samantha Kerkman, who is, to my knowledge, opposed to recreational marijuana legalization, would run here and win re-election.


Of hypothetical assembly districts 34-66, 19 of them are more Democratic than the state as a whole, and 14 of them are more Republican than the state as a whole. Given that hypothetical assembly districts 1-33 had 13 Democratic-leaning districts and 20 Republican-leaning districts, that means that districts 1-66 have 32 Democratic-leaning districts and 34 Republican-leaning districts. Stay tuned for my analysis of Hypothetical Wisconsin Assembly Districts 67-99!

The gun nuts are trying to steal the Wisconsin gubernatorial election

Reid Wilson of the Washington Post is reporting that, starting tomorrow, the National Rifle Association (NRA), the largest gun lobby group in the country, intends to spend $260,000 on television ads in the Wisconsin gubernatorial election, presumably in support of Republican incumbent Scott Walker.

The NRA supports a dangerous far-right agenda to proliferate guns into every part of society in this country. NRA-backed politicians in Wisconsin have supported some of the most extreme gun proliferation measures out there, including proposed legislation to allow people to carry guns on the grounds of schools. In fact, the NRA, by pushing to weaken gun laws at all levels of government in this country, is responsible for recent mass shootings in places like a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wisconsin, a movie theater in Aurora, Colorado, and an elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut. The NRA’s agenda is to ensure that guns are able to end up in the hands of the wrong people in this country.

These crackpots stole the Democratic primary for Milwaukee County Sheriff last month, and we can’t let them steal yet another election in Wisconsin.

Political Analysis of the Wisconsin Hypothetical Assembly Districts (Districts 1-33)

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve done political analyses of how Wisconsin’s congressional and state senate districts may look like if Wisconsin had an Iowa-style redistricting process.

I’m now going to do an analysis of how Wisconsin’s state assembly districts may look like if Wisconsin had an Iowa-style redistricting process. Here’s the hypothetical state assembly districts map produced by the Wisconsin Legislative Reference Bureau (LRB), and here’s the spreadsheets I’ve compiled by redrawing the LRB’s hypothetical assembly districts on Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), downloading the CD and VTD data of the hypothetical assembly districts from DRA, and creating my own spreadsheets using the DRA data and some of my own calculations based on the DRA data.

Some important notes regarding the data provided in the analysis: “Total Population” refers to the total population of the district, “Deviation from Mean District Population” refers to how many more or less people the district has compared to the population of the average district (57,444), “Voting Age Population” refers to the total population of people 18 years of age or older in the district, “2008-2010 Average” refers to the Democratic and Republican two-party percentages of a weighted average of the 2008 Presidential, 2010 Gubernatorial, and 2010 U.S. Senate elections in Wisconsin, weighted at 50% for the 2008 Presidential race, 25% for the 2010 Gubernatorial race, and 25% for the 2010 U.S. Senate race, in each district, “Partisan Lean Relative to State” refers to how much more Democratic or Republican the district is compared to the state as a whole according to the 2008-2010 Average, and “Notes” refers to my descriptions and analysis of the district, as well as how the races in each district would play out if the hypothetical districts were in use for the 2014 elections.

Regarding percentages listed in the analysis: For the race statistics in Total Population and Voting Age Population, I’ve rounded the percentages of those to the nearest whole percent (unless it would be rounded to 50% under that rule, in that case, I round to either one or two decimal places), and, if a particular race has less than 0.5% of the total population or voting age population in a particular district, I don’t list that race for that district. The total of the race percentages of the total population and voting age population for each district may be more or less than 100% because of the rounding rules I use. Percentages for Deviation, 2008-2010 Average, and Partisan Lean Relative to State are all rounded to two decimal places.

This is part one of a three-part series of analyses of Wisconsin’s hypothetical assembly districts, covering hypothetical assembly districts 1-33.


 

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 1-3

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 1-3

1st Assembly District

Total Population: 56,877 (96% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -567 (-0.99%)

Voting Age Population: 44,848 (97% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 52.28% Democratic, 47.72% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.71% Republican

Notes: This district, barely more Republican than the state as a whole, includes mostly rural/scenic areas northeast of Green Bay, including all of Door and Kewaunee Counties and eastern parts of Brown County. The general election will be very competitive here.

2nd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,135 (82% White, 2% Black, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -309 (-0.54%)

Voting Age Population: 42,565 (86% White, 2% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 49.8% Democratic, 50.2% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.19% Republican

Notes: This district, entirely within Brown County, consists of the easternmost parts of the City of Green Bay and areas immediately east and south of there. Republican incumbent John Klenke either lives here or just outside of this district, and, with Andre Jacque’s current 2nd District split between several districts, this is one of a number of districts where Jacque may run. This district is effectively the successor to the current 88th District, which Klenke represents. Klenke would run here, and the winner of the GOP primary would be favored in the general election, although Democrats could defeat either of them (especially if Jacque were to run here and Republicans were to nominate) with a strong candidate.

3rd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,576 (93% White, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +132 (+0.23%)

Voting Age Population: 41,999 (95% White, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 45.22% Democratic, 54.78% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 7.76% Republican

Notes: This district, which extends from the southeastern part of the City of Appleton to the southern edge of the Green Bay urban area, includes all of Calumet County and the southern portion of Brown County. Longtime Republican incumbent Al Ott lives here, and he’d win re-election easily here barring a scandal or something along those lines unless Republican incumbent Andre Jacque, who lives just outside of this district but currently represents a sizable portion of this district, decides to run here. It’s not completely impossible for a Democratic candidate to win here, but it would take a perfect storm of circumstances in order for that to happen.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 4-6

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 4-6

4th Assembly District

Total Population: 60,705 (71% White, 5% Black, 14% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +3,261 (+5.68%)

Voting Age Population: 45,743 (78% White, 4% Black, 11% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 58.87% Democratic, 41.13% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.88% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district, entirely within Brown County, includes Allouez and the central part of the City of Green Bay. Effectively the successor to the current 90th District, Democratic incumbent Eric Genrich would probably run here, and it would probably take a scandal for a Republican candidate to win here.

5th Assembly District

Total Population: 54,019 (86% White, 2% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 4% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -3,425 (-5.96%)

Voting Age Population: 41,690 (89% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 49.05% Democratic, 50.95% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.94% Republican

Notes: This district, which includes the western portions of the City of Green Bay and suburban areas immediately north and south of there, is Republican-leaning. Whoever wins the GOP primary would be favored here, although a strong Democratic candidate could win here.

6th Assembly District

Total Population: 56,342 (93% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -1,102 (-1.92%)

Voting Age Population: 41,679 (94% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 44.65% Democratic, 55.35% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.34% Republican

Notes: This district, which includes west central and northwestern portions of Brown County, is heavily Republican. This is one of a number of districts where Republican incumbent Andre Jacque could run, and, despite his far-right reputation, he’d probably win re-election easily here barring a scandal.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 7-9 (7 Silver, 8 Blue, 9 Yellow)

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 7-9 (7 Silver, 8 Blue, 9 Yellow)

7th Assembly District

Total Population: 56,450 (Hispanic majority; 30% White, 7% Black, 57% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -994 (-1.73%)

Voting Age Population: 38,456 (Hispanic majority; 37% White, 7% Black, 50.08% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 70.28% Democratic, 29.72% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 17.29% Democratic

Notes: This district, entirely within Milwaukee County, includes West Milwaukee and the western and southwestern portions of the City of Milwaukee. Compared to the current 7th District, this district is shifted quite a bit eastward and becomes a narrowly Hispanic-majority district by voting-age population. Two incumbents, both Democrats, live either here or nearby: Daniel Riemer and Josh Zepnick. I’m guessing that one of them would run here, and the other would run in the new 9th District. Regardless, the Democratic primary is tantamount to election here, and it’s certainly possible for an Hispanic Democrat to win here, especially once either Riemer or Zepnick retire.

8th Assembly District

Total Population: 55,233 (Hispanic majority; 20% White, 8% Black, 68% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population:  -2,211 (-3.85%)

Voting Age Population: 36,407 (Hispanic majority; 26% White, 7% Black, 63% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 77.09% Demoratic, 22.91% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 24.1% Democratic

Notes: This district, which is entirely within the City of Milwaukee and includes areas immediately southwest of downtown, is the most Hispanic district in the state by both total population and voting-age population. Much of this territory is currently represented by Democratic incumbent JoCasta Zamarripa, and she’d run here, and she’d win here.

9th Assembly District

Total Population: 60,869 (70% White, 3% Black, 19% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +3,425 (+5.96%)

Voting Age Population: 47,183 (76% White, 3% Black, 16% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 53.76% Democratic, 46.24% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.77% Democratic

Notes: This district is effectively a new district carved out of portions of several Milwaukee-area districts, is located entirely within Milwaukee County, and includes northeastern portions of Greenfield and southwestern portions of the City of Milwaukee. Either Daniel Riemer or Josh Zepnick, both Democratic incumbents, would probably run here, and whoever Democrats nominate will have to face a competitive general election. The Democratic path to victory here would be to run up a comfortable margin in the Milwaukee portion of the district but not get blown out in the Greenfield portion of the district.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 10-12 (10 Hot Pink, 11 Dark Green, 12 Cyan)

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 10-12 (10 Hot Pink, 11 Dark Green, 12 Cyan)

10th Assembly District

Total Population: 53,331 (Black majority; 19% White, 70% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -4,113 (-7.16%)

Voting Age Population: 38,183 (Black majority; 25% White, 66% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 93.76% Democratic, 6.24% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 40.77% Democratic

Notes: This district, the first of five Black-majority districts by both total population and voting-age population, is the most Democratic-leaning district in the entire state. This district is entirely within the City of Milwaukee and includes the Riverwest neighborhood and areas immediately to the west of there. Compared to the current 10th District, this district loses Shorewood and drifts southward. This is one of a couple of districts where Democratic incumbent Leon Young, who could face a primary challenge due to his support of school vouchers regardless of where he runs, could run. Regardless, the winner of the Democratic primary would win the general election, likely without any general election opposition.

11th Assembly District

Total Population: 61,605 (Black majority; 19% White, 69% Black, 5% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +4,161 (+7.24%)

Voting Age Population: 45,404 (Black majority; 25% White, 64% Black, 5% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 90.69% Democratic, 9.31% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 37.7% Democratic

Notes: This district, a Black-majority district entirely within Milwaukee and containing part of the North Side of the city, is effectively the successor to the current 16th District, represented by Democratic incumbent Leon Young. Young would probably run here, and he’d probably face a primary challenge over his support of school vouchers. Regardless, the winner of the Democratic primary would easily win the general election.

12th Assembly District

Total Population: 56,896 (Black majority; 23% White, 67% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -548 (-0.95%)

Voting Age Population: 39,032 (Black majority, 29% White, 63% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 86.93% Democratic, 13.07% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 33.94% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district, which is entirely within the City of Milwaukee and includes areas along the boundary between Milwaukee and Wauwatosa, is effectively the successor to the current 18th District, although, compared to the current 18th District, the 12th District loses the southeastern portion of the current 18th District and gains the southern portion of the current 17th District. Much of this territory is currently represented by Democratic incumbent Evan Goyke, although Democratic incumbent La Tonya Johnson, whose current district was split between several districts, could run here as well. The winner of the Democratic primary would win the general election easily.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 13-15 (13 Dark Brown, 14 Dark Gold, 15 Orange)

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 13-15 (13 Dark Brown, 14 Dark Gold, 15 Orange)

13th Assembly District

Total Population: 55,975 (86% White, 2% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -1,469 (-2.56%)

Voting Age Population: 45,195 (90% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 44.97% Democratic, 55.03% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.02% Republican

Notes: This district, effectively a new district in the western Milwaukee County suburbs, includes all of Hales Corners, the western part of Greenfield, south central portions of West Allis, and the southwestern-most sections of the City of Milwaukee. Whoever wins the Republican primary is going to be strongly favored to win the general election, in fact, it would probably take a scandal or something along those lines for a Democratic candidate to win here.

14th Assembly District

Total Population: 59,115 (85% White, 7% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +1,671 (+2.91%)

Voting Age Population: 46,234 (87% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 51.67% Democratic, 48.33% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.32% Republican

Notes: This swing district is entirely within Milwaukee County and includes all of Wauwatosa and a few precincts of the City of Milwaukee. No Republican incumbent lives here, but either Rob Hutton or Dale Kooyenga, both Republican incumbents who live outside of this district but currently represent parts of it, may try to run here. This would be a big Democratic pickup opportunity, and the general election would be hotly contested.

15th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,080 (80% White, 4% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +636 (+1.11%)

Voting Age Population: 45,930 (85% White, 3% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 50.15% Democratic, 49.85% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.84% Republican

Notes: This district, which is a swing district, includes the vast majority of West Allis and a few precincts of the City of Milwaukee. Republican incumbent Joe Sanfelippo would run here, and he’d face a tough re-election fight here. This would be another big pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 16-18 (16 Beige, 17 Dark Slate Blue, 18 Yellow)

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 16-18 (16 Beige, 17 Dark Slate Blue, 18 Yellow)

16th Assembly District

Total Population: 55,344 (Black majority; 22% White, 70% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -2,100 (-3.66%)

Voting Age Population: 38,461 (Black majority; 27% White, 66% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 83.69% Democratic, 16.31% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 30.7% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district, entirely within Milwaukee County and includes areas of the northern parts of the city, is effectively the successor of the current 11th District, although it has considerably different lines: compared to the current district, this district loses southern portions of Glendale and the westernmost portions of the current 11th District and picks up Brown Deer and areas of Milwaukee south and southeast of the current 11th District. Democratic incumbent Mandela Barnes would probably run here, and he’d win re-election easily.

17th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,683 (Black majority; 20% White, 66% Black, 4% Hispanic, 7% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +239 (+0.42%)

Voting Age Population: 39,571 (Black majority; 26% White, 63% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 85.68% Democratic, 14.32% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 32.69% Democratic

Notes: This district, which is entirely within the City of Milwaukee and includes some of the northernmost areas of the city, is effectively the successor to the current 12th District. Democratic incumbent Fred Kessler would either run here or in the 18th District. Additionally, Democratic incumbent La Tonya Johnson may run here as well. Either way, the winner of the Democratic primary would win the general election easily.

18th Assembly District

Total Population: 59,241 (Black plurality; 40% White, 46% Black, 5% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +1,797 (+3.13%)

Voting Age Population: 41,414 (White plurality; 48% White, 41% Black, 4% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 69.22% Democratic, 30.78% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 16.23% Democratic

Notes: This district, which includes the northwestern-most portions of the City of Milwaukee in Milwaukee County and a couple of precincts of Menominee Falls in Waukesha County, is overwhelmingly-Democratic, has a White plurality by voting-age population, and a Black plurality by total population. Democratic incumbent Fred Kessler may run here, alternatively, he may run in the 17th District. Either way, the winner of the Democratic primary would win the general election easily.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 19-21 (19 Light Pink, 20 Red, 21 Green-Yellow)

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 19-21 (19 Greenish Yellow, 20 Light Pink, 21 Red)

19th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,159 (86% White, 3% Black, 5% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -285 (-0.5%)

Voting Age Population: 44,789 (88% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 40.66% Republican, 59.34% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 12.33% Republican

Notes: This district is a Republican stronghold that includes the southwestern corner of Milwaukee County (specifically, the vast majorities of Franklin and Greendale and the southeastern part of Greenfield) and the southeastern corner of Waukesha County (specifically, eastern sections of Muskego). Much of this area is currently represented by Republican incumbent Ken Skowronski, and he’d almost certainly win re-election here unless he were to try to run for state senate (the 19th, 20th, and 21st Assembly Districts would be part of a new, Republican-leaning 7th State Senate District).

20th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,368 (83% White, 2% Black, 11% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +924 (+1.61%)

Voting Age Population: 47,263 (86% White, 2% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 58.98% Democratic, 41.02% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.99% Democratic

Notes: This heavily-Democratic district is entirely within Milwaukee County and includes a couple of precincts of the northern part of Oak Creek, all of Cudahy and St. Francis, and the southeastern portion of the city of Milwaukee. Much of this area is currently represented by Democratic incumbent Christine Sinicki. While Republicans have an outside shot of victory here, Sinicki should be able to win re-election here.

21st Assembly District

Total Population: 56,635 (84% White, 2% Black, 8% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -809 (-1.41%)

Voting Age Population: 43,719 (87% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 58.98% Democratic, 41.02% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.74% Republican

Notes: This district, which is entirely within Milwaukee County, includes the southeastern-most parts of the county. This district is only slightly different than the current 21st District, trading a couple of Oak Creek precincts for a couple of Franklin precincts. Republican incumbent Jessie Rodriguez lives here, and, unless she were to try to run for state senate, she’d likely win re-election here. This district isn’t overwhelmingly Republican, so Democrats have an outside chance of winning here, although it would probably take a perfect storm of circumstances for that to happen.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 22-24 (22 Brown, 23 Light Cyan, 24 Dark Purple)

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 22-24 (22 Brown, 23 Light Cyan, 24 Dark Purple)

22nd Assembly District

Total Population: 56,405 (85% White, 5% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -1,039 (-1.81%)

Voting Age Population: 51,902 (86% White, 5% Black, 3% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 72.04% Democratic, 27.96% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 19.05% Democratic

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Democratic district is entirely within Milwaukee County and includes the East Side of the City of Milwaukee and Shorewood. Effectively the successor of the current 19th District, whoever wins the Democratic primary here would win the general election easily.

23rd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,779 (87% White, 5% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +335 (+0.58%)

Voting Age Population: 44,077 (88% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average:

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.11% Republican

Notes: This swing district includes the northeastern corner of Milwaukee County and the southeastern corner of Ozaukee County. Republican incumbent Jim Ott would probably run here, and he’d face a tough re-election fight here. The general election would be very competitive here, as this would be a huge Democratic pickup opportunity.

24th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,756 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +312 (+0.54%)

Voting Age Population: 44,106 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 35.43% Democratic, 64.57% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 17.55% Republican

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Republican district, effectively the successor of the current 60th District, is entirely within Ozaukee County and includes most of the county. The Republican primary is tantamount to election here.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 25-27

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 25-27

25th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,277 (91% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -167 (-0.29%)

Voting Age Population: 44,734 (93% White, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 51.61% Democratic, 48.39% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 1.38% Republican

Notes: This district, entirely within Manitowoc County, includes the City of Manitowoc, Two Rivers, a single precinct south of Manitowoc, and the north central and northeastern parts of Manitowoc County. Republican incumbent Paul Tittl lives here, and he’d probably run here. This is a swing district that Democrats would seriously contest, although many Democrats in this part of the state are moderate or even conservative.

26th Assembly District

Total Population: 58,017 (80% White, 2% Black, 9% Hispanic, 8% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +573 (+1%)

Voting Age Population: 43,476 (85% White, 1% Black, 7% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 53.37% Democratic, 46.63% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 0.39% Democratic

Notes: This swing district, slightly more Democratic than Wisconsin as a whole is, is entirely within Sheboygan County and includes the City of Sheboygan, the Town of Sheboygan, and part of Kohler. This district would be hotly contested by both parties, and whoever Democrats nominate would probably be slightly favored here, as Democrats have a fairly deep bench at the local level here.

27th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,101 (95% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -343 (-0.6%)

Voting Age Population: 43,834 (97% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander)

2008-2010 Average: 37.55% Democratic, 62.45% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 15.44% Republican

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Republican district includes western and southern portions of Manitowoc County and north central, northeastern, central, and southeastern Sheboygan County. Whoever wins the Republican primary here would win the general election here.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 28-30

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 28-30

28th Assembly District

Total Population: 56,291 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: -1,153 (-2.01%)

Voting Age Population: 40,742 (96% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 44.55% Democratic, 55.45% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.44% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican district, effectively the successor of the 30th District, is entirely within St. Croix County, and includes the western part of the county, taking in communities like Hudson and New Richmond. Republican incumbent Dean Knudson lives here, and he gets an even more Republican-leaning district than his current district. It would take a scandal or something along those lines for a Democrat to win here.

29th Assembly District

Total Population: 57,693 (95% White, 1% Hispanic, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +249 (+0.43%)

Voting Age Population: 44,632 (96% White, 1% Hispanic, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 46.06% Democratic, 53.94% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 6.93% Republican

Notes: This heavily-Republican district is based in River Falls and includes the northern parts of Pierce County, the eastern parts of St. Croix County, and the southeastern corner of Polk County. Republican incumbent John Murtha lives here, and it would probably take a perfect storm of circumstances for Democrats to win here.

30th Assembly District

Total Population: 59,114 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +1,670 (+2.91%)

Voting Age Population: 44,948 (96% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 48.69% Democratic, 51.31% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 4.3% Republican

Notes: This district, effectively the successor of the current 28th District, consists of all of Burnett County and the vast majority of Polk County. Whoever wins the GOP primary here is strongly favored, although Democrats would probably contest this district heavily.

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 31-33

Hypothetical Assembly Districts 31-33

31st Assembly District

Total Population: 56,967 (90% White, 4% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population:

Voting Age Population: 44,623 (90% White, 5% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American)

2008-2010 Average: 43.78% Democratic, 56.22% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 9.21% Republican

Notes: This district, which is effectively the successor to the current 39th District, is based around Beaver Dam and includes the northern and west central parts of Dodge County. Republican incumbent Mark Born lives here and would run here. Born would win re-election here barring a scandal or something along those lines.

32nd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,987 (93% White, 1% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +543 (+0.94%)

Voting Age Population: 43,844 (95% White, 4% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 37.09% Democratic, 62.91% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 15.9% Republican

Notes: This overwhelmingly-Republican district is effectively the successor to the current 37th District, and it is based in Watertown, taking in southern and east central portions of Dodge County and a couple of sections of northern Jefferson County. Republican incumbent John Jagler would run here and win re-election easily.

33rd Assembly District

Total Population: 57,491 (91% White, 1% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

Deviation from Mean District Population: +47 (+0.08%)

Voting Age Population: 44,542 (93% White, 1% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)

2008-2010 Average: 48.41% Democratic, 51.59% Republican

Partisan Lean Relative to State: 4.58% Republican

Notes: This district, which includes most of Jefferson County, is a Republican-leaning district that is winnable for Democrats. Whoever wins the Republican primary would be favored to win re-election here, however, this region of Wisconsin has a surprisingly well-developed Democratic/progressive network that could produce a strong Democratic candidate that would be needed to win here. Democratic incumbent Andy Jorgensen used to live here prior to the post-2010 Census redistricting, and this is one of three districts where he may run.


Of Hypothetical Wisconsin Assembly Districts 1-33, 13 of them are more Democratic-leaning than Wisconsin as a whole is and 20 of them are more Republican-leaning than Wisconsin as a whole is. Stay tuned for the analyses of Hypothetical Wisconsin Assembly Districts 34-66, due out Wednesday, and Hypothetical Wisconsin Assembly Districts 67-99, due out Friday!

All 5 Republican women calling for EMILY’s List to pull Susan Happ endorsement voted for forced ultrasounds

In cased you missed it, five female Republican members of the Wisconsin State Legislature, State Senators Alberta Darling, Leah Vukmir, and Sheila Harsdorf and State Representatives Pat Strachota and Joan Ballweg, have called for EMILY’s List, a Democratic establishment front group that backs Democratic women who support reproductive rights, to rescind their endorsement of Democratic nominee for Attorney General of Wisconsin Susan Happ.

Darling, Vukmir, Harsdorf, Strachota, and Ballweg have something in common: They all voted for legislation to require Wisconsin women who wish to seek abortions to get an ultrasound, regardless of whether they need or want an ultrasound or not.

Wisconsin’s forced ultrasound bill is one of the most anti-women pieces of legislation I’ve seen. It requires women, even if they don’t want to do so, who wish to have a pregnancy terminated in Wisconsin to undergo an ultrasound. That does absolutely nothing but harass Wisconsin women who, for whatever reason, wish to have a pregnancy terminated, in fact, the forced ultrasound law effectively amounts to state-sanctioned sexual assault of Wisconsin women. Sticking any kind of object into a woman’s vagina when the woman doesn’t want said object stuck in her vagina is sexual assault, and any Wisconsin woman who wishes to have a pregnancy terminated but doesn’t want an ultrasound is legally forced to be sexually assaulted.

Darling, Vukmir, Harsdorf, Strachota, and Ballweg share even more in common. They all voted for a state budget bill that eliminated funding to women’s health care centers in Wisconsin and cut funding for programs in Wisconsin that serve victims and witnesses of sexual assault. They all voted to make it easier for Wisconsin employers to pay men more than women. They all opposed efforts to guarantee that women can get birth control at Wisconsin pharmacies.

Although I believe that EMILY’s List is just as much a part of the problem when it comes to big-money politics in this country as the Koch Brothers are, EMILY’s List shouldn’t cave to a bunch of anti-women crackpots by pulling their support of a candidate for statewide office in Wisconsin who meets their criteria of endorsement.

On a related note, regarding the far-right propaganda group Media Trackers attacking One Wisconsin Now executive director Scott Ross because he’s a guy who called out Darling, Vukmir, Harsdorf, Strachota, and Ballweg for opposing women’s rights, I’m far more pro-women than any of those five Republican members of the Wisconsin State Legislature. The most important part of being pro-women is supporting the right of women to make their own decisions in life, including decisions regarding their reproductive health care.

Right-wing federal judges have disenfranchised thousands of Wisconsin voters

A three-judge panel of the federal 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, which consisted entirely of Republican-appointed judges, has reinstated Wisconsin’s Voter ID law that is designed to discriminate against poor, minority, and elderly voters who, for various reasons, can’t get a photo ID:

In a stunningly fast decision, a federal appeals court in Chicago reinstated Wisconsin’s voter photo identification law on Friday — just hours after three Republican-appointed judges heard arguments on reactivating the hotly debated law in time for the November election.

In a brief order, a three-judge panel of the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago said, “The State of Wisconsin may, if it wishes … enforce the photo ID requirement in this November’s elections.”

Wisconsin officials wasted no time in saying they would do just that.

For those in Wisconsin who don’t have photo IDs, it’s going to be very difficult to get one in time for the November 4 election. For example, the Wisconsin DMV branch in Fort Atkinson is open for a total of 23 hours and 15 minutes between now and November 4 (8:30 AM-4:15 PM on September 25, October 9, and October 23). I don’t know about the operating schedules of other DMV branches in Wisconsin. This order to reinstate Voter ID was clearly timed to give Democratic and progressive voters as little time as possible to get photo IDs in order to be able to vote.

Three Republican-appointed judges may have just stolen the 2014 elections in Wisconsin for Scott Walker, Brad Schimel, and their far-right ilk.

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